The first round of Russian parliamentary elections clearly demonstrated the extent to which the Russian political scene has polarised over the last 2-3 years. This is a significant change from the first presidential elections of 1991, when Yeltsin easily attained office by winning two-thirds of the votes in the first round, and from the days of the early 1990s when the spread of votes between the various political leaders and their movements was much wider than today. This polarisation bears testimony to the fact that the process of searching for a national identity is well under way in Russia. The disillusionment and apathy, political debates and search for a "third way" that previously characterised Russian developments are by now more or less history. The major issue now is the choice that Russian voters will have to make in early July between two main options: to continue to support the "reform process", which so many believe is leading nowhere, or to go back to the "bright past", which eventually brought the country to a deadlock situation. In other words, the choice is between a corrupt version of "wild capitalism" and a failed system of overall state domination.
No matter how important and profound the differences between these two options, the real factor that has dominated the current Russian elections is a growing Russian nationalism. Nationalist feelings have formed the basis of the political platforms of all the major presidential candidates, whether on the left or the right of the political spectrum. This factor largely contributed to the merging of the positions of the two main rivals, Yeltsin and Zyuganov, with the latter even complaining publicly that Yeltsin had "stolen" many of his political ideas. It looks as though Russian nationalism, which is expressed in both anti-Westernism and nostalgia for the Russia-led USSR, is likely to be a cornerstone of future Russian policy, no matter who wins the second round of Russian elections.
The preliminary results of the first round of elections and the political platforms of the main candidates are presented in a simplified form in the table below (see hard copy of Bulletin for table).
This view of the current Russian political struggle clearly demonstrates that the overall winner of these elections is nationalism. From this point of view Yeltsin, who has only recently turned himself into a nationalist, is in a significantly weaker position than Zyuganov, who has consistently held to a nationalist position ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Therefore, no matter what coalitions Lebed or Zhirinovsky might enter into with Yeltsin, Zyuganov has a much better chance of attracting their votes in the second round than Yeltsin does. However, the second dominant factor after nationalism is anti-communism, which Yeltsin used so successfully to get through the first round of elections. Whether this will help him in the second round remains uncertain.
We will publish a detailed review of Russian presidential elections in our next issue.